Potato (Solanumtuberosum) is a solanaceous root vegetable which also serves as staple food in many countries. In India potato assumes the status of top most important vegetable, grown as a short duration rabi crop. But due to relatively high cost of cultivation, potato growing farmers often face problems regarding post-harvest handling and marketing of the produce. The arrival pattern also varies through the year as a consequence of seasonality of production and perishability feature of vegetable crop. In this context Wavelet based modeling and forecasting technique to deal with volatile potato price is elaborated as an alternative to the traditional forecasting models, such as, Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model. Maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) is advocated to represent the series at multi-resolution level and combined with ARIMA or GARCH class of models in order to increase the forecast accuracy. To this end, formulae for out-of-sample prediction has been worked out for Wavelet-GARCH hybrid model. Monthly potato price data of three markets, namely Haldwani, Agra and Lucknow of Uttar Pradesh, India have been considered for the present investigation. The combinatory of Wavelet-GARCH hybrid model has been found to outperform the individual ARIMA and GARCH model. The R software package has been used for data analysis. Keywords: ARIMA, GARCH, MODWT, Volatility, Wavelet.

  Risk in agriculture is imminent due to the sudden fluctuations in prices of essential commodities. To cope up with these fluctuations, hedging is usually employed to reduce risk. Studies based on hedging carried out in developed markets like the United States and Europe have finally been employed in emerging markets such as China, India, Brazil, Russia and many other Asian countries. Our study deals with estimating the optimal hedge ratio, which is defined as the relationship between the price of the spot commodity and that of the hedging commodity. Hedging is done in order to minimize the price risk of agricultural commodities due to volatility in prices. Several techniques to estimate the hedge ratio have been proposed in literature. The conventional approach is based on fixed coefficient models which gives a constant optimal hedge ratio. Previous studies have shown that the expected relationship between economic or financial variables may be better captured by a time-varying parameter model rather than a fixed coefficient model. Therefore, the optimal hedge ratio can be a time varying rather than a constant. To this end, a powerful technique called ?Kalman filter? has been applied for estimating time-varying hedge ratio. As illustration, three contracts of soybean market were also carried out. It was seen that time-varying hedge ratio performed better than constant hedge ratio for the data under consideration. Keywords: Optimal Hedge Ratio, Constant coefficient, Time-Varying coefficient, Kalman filter, State Space Modelling.

  In this study, an effort has been made to identify transmission of price signals and volatility spillover effects between the spot and futures market of black pepper, using Johansen co-integration test, VEC-BEKK and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model. The study has been conducted of black pepper, using Johansen co-integration test, VEC-BEKK and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model. The study has been conducted of black pepper, using Johansen co-integration test, VEC-BEKK and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model. The study has been conducted of black pepper, using Johansen co-integration test, VEC-BEKK and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model. The study has been conducted on the price data ranging from 1st January, 2010 to 20th May, 2013 collected from NCDEX, India. The empirical findings revealed that futures market on the price data ranging from 1st January, 2010 to 20th May, 2013 collected from NCDEX, India. The empirical findings revealed that futures market on the price data ranging from 1st January, 2010 to 20th May, 2013 collected from NCDEX, India. The empirical findings revealed that futures market on the price data ranging from 1st January, 2010 to 20th May, 2013 collected from NCDEX, India. The empirical findings revealed that futures market is the main transmitter of volatility into the spot market resulting higher persistency in volatility of black pepper spot market. Analysis of volatility spillover in this context also resulted the presence of bidirectional volatility spillover between spot and futures market of black pepper. The dynamic and time varying nature of conditional correlation between spot and futures market reflecting significant volatility spillover during the period of the and time varying nature of conditional correlation between spot and futures market reflecting significant volatility spillover during the period of the and time varying nature of conditional correlation between spot and futures market reflecting significant volatility spillover during the period of the year 2012. The findings also suggest of one cointegrating relationship between spot and futures price in the long run. Keywords: BEKK model, Black pepper, DCC model, NCDEX, Volatility spillover.

  The present paper proposes shrinkage testimators for the variance of a Normal Distribution when both the parameters are unknown. The choice of shrinkage factor is no longer arbitrary as it is made to dependent on test statistic. The risk properties of these testimators have been studied using the asymmetric loss function proposed by Basu and Ebrahimi (1991). It is observed that the proposed testimators dominate the usual best available pooled estimator for various degrees of asymmetry and different levels of significance. Recommendations regarding its applications have been attempted. Keywords: Normal distribution, Variance, Double stage, Shrinkage testimators, Degree of asymmetry, Level of significance.

  In an m class Generalised Neighbour Balanced (GNm) design in circular blocks, any two treatments can occur together as neighbours in the design ?i no association scheme is involved for any pair treatments as neighbours. In the present paper a new series of GN2 no association scheme is involved for any pair treatments as neighbours. In the present paper a new series of GN2no association scheme is involved for any pair treatments as neighbours. In the present paper a new series of GN2 no association scheme is involved for any pair treatments as neighbours. In the present paper a new series of GN2 designs from Group Divisible (GD) PBIB designs (Clatworthy 1973) has been developed. The series of designs also has a GD association scheme (Singular or Semi-regular or Regular) for the treatments as neighbours. The concept of merging of GD PBIB designs and the above mentioned GN2 designs with correlated observations will develop a new series of Group divisible Generalised neighbour balanced PBIB designs with two associate classes (GDGNPBIB). The definitions, properties and structural characteristics of GDGNPBIB are also developed in paper. The blocks used in these designs are considered as circular using border plot concept (Azais et al. 1993; Bailey 2003; Jaggi et al. 2007; Majumder et al. 2015 etc.). The presence of correlation in the form of neighbour effects among the plots in agricultural experiments is used as given in Kiefer and Wynn (1981), Gill and Shukla (1985). The main advantage of GDGNPBIB designs with correlated observations is that the analyses of such designs are identical with GD PBIB designs. It has observed that any GD PBIB design with k = 3 will be a GDGNPBIB design in circular blocks. Moreover, a series of GDGNPBIB designs in circular blocks has been listed for k = 4. The efficiency values (A & D) of listed designs are presented for different values of ? (-0.5 to +0.5). Keywords: GN2 designs, Group Divisible Association scheme, PBIB designs, GDGNPBIB designs in circular blocks, Correlated observations.

  In an m class Generalised Neighbour Balanced (GNm) design in circular blocks, any two treatments can occur together as neighbours in the design ?i (i = 1, 2, ?, m) number of times (Misra et al.1991; Iqbal et al. 2012; Hamad 2014 etc.). Literature survey reveals that in existing GNm designs no association scheme is involved for any pair treatments as neighbours. In the present paper a new series of GN2 designs from Group Divisible (GD) PBIB designs (Clatworthy 1973) has been developed. The series of designs also has a GD association scheme (Singular or Semi-regular or Regular) for the treatments as neighbours. The concept of merging of GD PBIB designs and the above mentioned GN2 designs with correlated observations will develop a new series of Group divisible Generalised neighbour balanced PBIB designs with two associate classes (GDGNPBIB). The definitions, properties and structural characteristics of GDGNPBIB are also developed in paper. The blocks used in these designs are considered as circular using border plot concept (Azais et al. 1993; Bailey 2003; Jaggi et al. 2007; Majumder et al. 2015 etc.). The presence of correlation in the form of neighbour effects among the plots in agricultural experiments is used as given in Kiefer and Wynn (1981), Gill and Shukla (1985). The main advantage of GDGNPBIB designs with correlated observations is that the analyses of such designs are identical with GD PBIB designs. It has observed that any GDGNPBIB designs with correlated observations is that the analyses of such designs are identical with GD PBIB designs. It has observed that any GD PBIB design with k = 3 will be a GDGNPBIB design in circular blocks. Moreover, a series of GDGNPBIB designs in circular blocks has been listed for k = 4. The efficiency values (A & D) of listed designs are presented for different values of ? (-0.5 to +0.5). Keywords: GN2 designs, Group Divisible Association scheme, PBIB designs, GDGNPBIB designs in circular blocks, Correlated observations.

  This paper deals with bipartite block model with neighbour effects incorporating trend component. The information matrices for estimating direct as well as neighbour effects incorporating trend component have been derived. The conditions for a block design with neighbour effects to be trend resistant have also been obtained. Further, methods of constructing trend resistant neighbour balanced bipartite block design have been discussed. The designs so obtained are totally balanced for estimating direct and neighbour effects of treatments. Keywords: Block design, Balanced bipartite, Neighbour effects, Direct effect, Trend.

  In this paper, allocation of sample in the case of circular systematic sampling has been discussed when stratified sampling is used. Variances of the formulae have been discussed when the allocation is optimum or proportional. It has also been found that variances of the estimators in the case of circular systematic sampling (CSS) are more than those in the case of simple random sampling (SRS). Keywords: Circular systematic sampling, Proportional and optimum allocation, Efficiencies.

  The National Academy of Agricultural Research Management (NAARM) was established by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research The National Academy of Agricultural Research Management (NAARM) was established by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) at Hyderabad, in 1976, to address issues related to agricultural research and education management. The Academy also renders services for building IP portfolios like patents and geographical indications to various stakeholders including farmers and scientists. Keeping in view the increasing national and global need to integrate agriculture with agribusiness for raising rural incomes, and the increased emphasis on the creation, dissemination, application and exchange of knowledge in this vital area, the Academy has recently initiated post graduate education programmes and set up an Agribusiness Knowledge Centre. In the above mentioned scenario, NAARM also conducting many training programmes/courses over the year and there is lot of time and money being invested into purchasing physical machines and software. There is a need of maintaining specific set of software required for each training. The being invested into purchasing physical machines and software. There is a need of maintaining specific set of software required for each training. The Coordinators of the training programmes has to ensure beforehand that all the machines are working fine and all the software required for that training got installed in all machines and working without any issues. This requirement of preparedness for training programmes has been avoided completely by establishing a private cloud which can provide Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) at our organization. At the end of programmes may it be a regular or refresher course, coordinators has supposed to be evaluate the participants by tools like quizzes and exams. NAARM is using SynchronEyes Student-Teacher software for evaluation purpose. Many issues were there in this examinations system because of network, virus and power problems. This also has been completely avoided by establishing a hybrid cloud. This also has been completely avoided by establishing a hybrid cloud.

  This also has been completely avoided by establishing a hybrid cloud. This also has been completely avoided by establishing a hybrid cloud. In recent years a drop in productivity and profitability has been observed, mainly due to excessive use of natural resources. Most important problem in Punjab is the rapidly falling water table on which almost 72 per cent of the agriculture depends. The groundwater is falling by a meter or more per year. To ensure sustainable use of groundwater and to sustain productivity and profitability, this study presents optimum crop plan for Punjab state in India. Market price, economic price (net effect of subsidy) and natural resource valuation (NRV) have been used to maximize the net returns for in India. Market price, economic price (net effect of subsidy) and natural resource valuation (NRV) have been used to maximize the net returns for in India. Market price, economic price (net effect of subsidy) and natural resource valuation (NRV) have been used to maximize the net returns for in India. Market price, economic price (net effect of subsidy) and natural resource valuation (NRV) have been used to maximize the net returns for in India. Market price, economic price (net effect of subsidy) and natural resource valuation (NRV) have been used to maximize the net returns for Punjab farmers. The study has used plot-level cost of cultivation survey data for the triennium ending 2010-11. Linear Programming based model has been developed to examine various options of conserving water from farmers as well as social perspective. Ground water constraint has been varied by decreasing its availability in steps of 5 per cent starting from the existing ground water use of 31.6 Billion Cubic Meter to the replensihable limit of 20 Billion Cubic Meter. The results revealed that the area under paddy, a water intensive crop, has reduced from 7 to 59 per cent in different optimal 20 Billion Cubic Meter. The results revealed that the area under paddy, a water intensive crop, has reduced from 7 to 59 per cent in different optimal crop plans. The study recommends that under the current level of technology and policy scenario, ground water savings can be increased up to 10 per cent of the existing use while maintaining net gains to society positive. To increase water savings beyond this level, technological improvements and policy interventions are required. policy interventions are required.

  N.A